MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 21 Jul 1200Z to 22 Jul 1200Z 2024, Issued 21 Jul 2024
MSEAS 2.4km Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (atmospheric and tidally-forced forecasts initialized from both downscaled Mercator and downscaled HYCOM)
To obtain the large-ensemble 2-way nested forecasts, physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for the MSEAS T, S, u, v, w, and η fields downscaled from HYCOM and Mercator, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.
Click on any depth label for a full set of plots.
Note: The units of horizontal velocity are cm/s.
| Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 12 hours) |
|---|
| NW Atlantic Modeling Domain (2.4km resolution) |
|
0m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
50m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
200m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
500m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
1200m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
| Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 12 hours) |
|---|
| NW Atlantic Modeling Domain (2.4km resolution) |
|
0m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
50m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
200m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
500m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
1200m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
2000m |
| Sound Speed | Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.
The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):
time of last
analysis field time of last
in simulation fields in file
yyyymmddHH yyyymmddHH
MIT_NESMA_2024072000_2024072600_2024072100_01h.nc.gz
yyyymmddHH HH
time of first frequency with which
fields in file fields are stored in file
|